The dataset “Impact of HIV strategies for MSM” contains data obtained from an agent-based model. The model follows the sexual life of 20,000 men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands. Via sexual contacts, men may get infected with HIV or N. Gonorrhoeae (NG). The model simulates sexual behaviour, demography, and the course of HIV or NG infection (for those who have been infected). The data from the model are therefore data of “fictitious” (simulated) individuals, not of real individuals. The course of HIV infection was modelled using data from the national database of HIV-positive individuals in the Netherlands (Source: Stichting HIV Monitoring). Parameters relating to sexual behaviour were obtained from data from the Amsterdam Cohort Study and the Network Study among MSM in Amsterdam. The model was calibrated to data on annual HIV diagnoses in 2008-2014 (from Stichting HIV Monitoring) and gonorrhoea positivity in 2009-2014 (data obtained from the National Database of STI Clinics in the Netherlands (SOAP)). Model outcomes include the annual numbers of MSM getting infected with HIV; HIV-positive MSM getting diagnosed, entering care, or starting treatment; MSM developing AIDS; MSM getting infected with NG; MSM treated for gonorrhoea; HIV tests, NG tests, etc. With the model, we calculated these numbers for the years 2018-2027, for the situation with the current testing rates and without PrEP. Subsequently we calculated these numbers with increased HIV/STI testing: a small, a moderate, and a high increase in testing among all MSM or only among MSM in specific subgroups of MSM. Finally, the calculations were repeated accounting for a nationwide PrEP programme for MSM at high risk to acquire HIV.
In the description of the models, we explain the model structure and assumptions. The different model scenarios are explained in the files with the scenarios. The codebook explains the names of variables (columns) in the data files.